22 Jul Gone with the Wind: International Migration
Gone with the Wind: International Migration
University of Otago
This paper adds to the literature on the determinants of international migration. First, we offer a joint analysis of the driving forces of migration capturing year-to-year variations and long-run effects. Second, we analyze the dynamic response of migration to shocks to its determinants. We start by presenting a theoretical model that allows us to model migration as an augmented gravity equation. We then construct a rich panel data set with 16 destination and 198 origin countries between 1980 and 2014. Most importantly, we find that climate change is a more important driver than income and political freedom together. Our results imply that a large time dimension is key to understand the effects of climate change. We then estimate a panel vector autoregressive model showing that the dynamic response of migration is very different across shocks to different driving forces. Our findings carry implications for national and international immigration policies.
Aburn, A., Wesselbaum, D. (2017). Gone with the Wind: International Migration (Working paper No. 1708). Retrieved from the University of Otago, Department of Economics website: https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/otgwpaper/1708.htm