Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom: an exploration using Bayesian models

Type

Journal Article

Author(s)

Abel, Guy
Bijak, Jakub
Findlay, Allan
McCollum, David
Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz

Title

Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom: an exploration using Bayesian models.

Date

2013

Journal

International Journal of Global Warming

Vol (No), pp

35(2), 183–203

Abstract

Over the next 50 years, the potential impact of environmental change on human livelihoods could be considerable, with one possible consequence being increased levels of human mobility. This paper explores how uncertainty about the level of immigration to the United Kingdom as a consequence of environmental factors elsewhere may be forecast using a methodology involving Bayesian models. The conceptual understanding of forecasting is advanced in three ways. First, the analysis is believed to be the first time that the Bayesian modelling approach has been attempted in relation to environmental mobility. Second, the paper considers the expediency of this approach by comparing the responses to a Delphi survey with conventional expectations about environmental mobility in the research literature. Finally, the values and assumptions of the expert evidence provided in the Delphi survey are interrogated to illustrate the limited set of conditions under which forecasts of environmental mobility, as set out in this paper, are likely to hold.

Citation

Abel, G., Bijak, J., Findlay, A., McCollum, D., & Wiśniowski, A. (2013). Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom: an exploration using Bayesian models. Population and Environment, 35(2), 183–203. doi: 10.1007/s11111-013-0186-8