Effects of Future Climate Change on Cross-Border Migration in North Africa and India

Type

Journal Article

Author(s)

Population and Development Review

Title

Effects of Future Climate Change on Cross-Border Migration in North Africa and India

Year

2010

Journal

Population and Development Review

Vol (No), pp

36(2), 408-412

Abstract

Among its recent projects, the US National Intelligence Council has undertaken a study of the geopolitics of anticipated climate change over the next two decades. An initial assessment of the implications for US national security, published in 2008, was followed by more detailed work on six major countries and regions: India, China, Russia, North Africa, Mexico and the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia. In each case a conference brought together social scientists and experts on the region from outside the intelligence community to examine likely climate effects on migration, economic and social conditions, and state instability. Excerpts from two of the conference reports—for North Africa and India—on the subject of cross-border migration are printed below. The full reports—stressing that they do not convey official US government views—can be found at «http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_otherprod/climate_change/ cr200921_north_africa_climate_change.pdf» and «http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_ otherprod/climate_change/cr200907_india_climate_change.pdf». Climate change is expected to precipitate a much-increased movement of economic migrants from sub-Saharan Africa into North Africa (especially Libya) and thence to Europe, with Europe responding by attempting to build a North African cordon sanitaire to prevent it. The report foresees an emerging “grand bargain” entailing “European acceptance of regulated North African immigration in exchange for North African efforts to curb migration from further south.” In India, the major climate effect on cross-border migration is anticipated to result from salt water intrusion into the Ganges delta, displacing “tens of millions” of Bangladeshis. India’s border with Bangladesh is likened to the US border with Mexico, with similarly ineffectual controls

Citation

Review, P. a. D. (2010). “Effects of Future Climate Change on Cross-Border Migration in North Africa and India.” Population and Development Review 36(2): 408-412. URL : http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00338.x