09 Dec Climate Change, Internal Migration and the Future Spatial Distribution of Population: A Case Study of New Zealand
Climate Change, Internal Migration and the Future Spatial Distribution of Population: A Case Study of New Zealand
Department of Economics
Working Paper in Economics 03/17
University of Waikato
This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on the future spatial distribution of population in New Zealand, with a focus on the effects of climate variables on internal migration dynamics. Specifically, a gravity modelling framework is first used to identify climate variables that have statistically significant associations with internal migration. The gravity model is then embedded within a cohort-component population projection model to evaluate the effect of different climate change scenarios on regional populations. Three climate variables are found to have statistically significant associations with internal migration: (1) mean sea level pressure in the destination; (2) surface radiation in the origin; and (3) wind speed at ten metres at the destination. Including these variables in the population projection model makes a small difference to the regional population distribution, and the difference between different climate scenarios is negligible. Overall, the results suggest that, while statistically significant, climate change will have a negligible effect on the population distribution of New Zealand at the regional level.
Cameron, M. P. (2017). Climate Change, Internal Migration and the Future Spatial Distribution of Population: A Case Study of New Zealand. Working Paper in Economics 03/17. University of Waikato. Hamilton, New Zealand.